Sunday, August 23, 2009

Interesting article on Cheney and Bush

Interesting article on Cheney and Bush.

I don't know if Cheney's insane or if the rest of us are all blind to the realities of foreign policy. On the one hand, he sounds paranoid, but on the other hand, people who don't spend time looking at black swans tend to seriously, seriously underestimate the probability and effects of them. Even if there is a low probability in any given year of a rogue group or state getting a nuke, over a medium term, it becomes much more likely.*

There's also a natural revulsion to Cheney's implicit Machiavellian notion that we should seek to be feared, not loved. Again, it's easy for the rest of us to dismiss it, because we think in the short term. It may be better in the short term to be loved, but in the long term to be feared. It's hard to know if Cheney's megalomaniacal, or merely has a longer time frame of interest than the rest of us.

Either way, it's a fascinating take on a really mysterious guy who I can't decide whether to hate or respect (or both).

*compounded probability is such that if something only has a 1% chance of happening in a given year, it has a 9.6% chance of happening in the next decade, an 18.2% chance of happening in 2 decades and, if one assumes current 22 year olds will live to 85, a 46.9% chance of happening in their lifetime.

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